Analysts expect spot gold prices, which hit a record high above $5,000 per ounce (28.34 gram) on Monday, to climb further toward $6,000 this year ​on mounting global tensions as well as strong central-bank and retail demand, reports Reuters.

Gold raced to a peak of $5,092.70 as geopolitical and economic risks rattled markets. ‌The safe-haven metal is up more than 17% this year, after soaring 64% in 2025.

The London Bullion Market Association's annual precious metals forecast survey shows analysts projecting gold rising as high as $7,150 and averaging $4,742 in 2026.

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900.

Independent analyst Ross Norman expects a high of $6,400 this year, with an average of $5,375.

"The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that's playing very much into gold's hands," Norman said.

Geopolitical tensions

Gold's recent rally has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, ‌from the U.S.–NATO friction over Greenland and tariff uncertainty to rising doubts over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, among others.

"With the upcoming US ​mid-term elections, political uncertainty may increase further. At the same time, persistent concerns about over-valued equity markets are likely to reinforce portfolio diversification flows into gold," said Philip Newman, a director at Metals Focus.

"After crossing the $5,000/ounce milestone, we expect further upside," he added.

Robust central bank purchases

Central-bank gold buying, a key driver of prices in ‍2025, is expected to stay strong this year.

Goldman Sachs forecasts purchases to average 60 metric tons a month as emerging-market central banks continue diversifying reserves into gold.

Poland's central bank, which held 550 tons of gold at end-2025, aims to lift reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski said this month.

These plans reaffirm the view that the key driver behind the spike in gold is ⁠central banks "looking to de-dollarise ... and where else could you go except into gold?" Norman said.

China's central bank extended its gold-buying spree for a 14th month in December.

ETF ‍inflows, retail demand

Inflows into gold-backed ETFs, which store bullion for investors and account for a significant amount of investment demand for the metal, are also underpinning prices as markets expect ‌further U.S. ‌rate cuts this year.

"There's an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise," said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

Gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data, with annual inflows surging to $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows totalled 801 metric tons, the highest since their record in ⁠2020.

MSH

Companies and organisations will be required to file tax returns on the income generated by employee welfare funds from the current fiscal year and pay a 27.5 percent tax on the earnings. 

The Income Tax Act 2023 incorporates the provision, lifting the tax exemption and amnesty on the compulsion to file returns for funds such as provident funds, gratuity funds and workers' profit participation funds maintained by the private sector.

The law, however, has exempted government-managed provident funds from taxation, raising questions.

TIM Nurul Kabir, executive director of the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce & Industry, said there were many other avenues to collect tax.

"Employees benefit from provident funds after their retirement. So, the authority should not slap taxes on retirement benefit."

He said while levying the tax, the government has not treated provident funds of the private and public sectors equally.

"It is discriminatory," he said, adding that they would appeal to the tax authority for the withdrawal of the tax on income from provident funds.

Debabrata Roy Chowdhury, director for legal, regulatory and corporate affairs at Nestlé Bangladesh PLC, said the introduction of income tax on trust funds would lower the overall income from such schemes.

"This will have an adverse long-term impact on retired employees of private organisations."

Chowdhury urged the authority to address the issue in line with the spirit of the government's initiatives aimed at ensuring social security for private sector employees.

"The recent introduction of the universal pension scheme for private sector employees is a good example of that."

A senior official of the NBR, on condition of anonymity, said the income of government-managed provident funds was exempted in line with the Provident Fund Act 1925.

He said provident funds under the private sector had been historically exempted and there was no requirement to submit tax returns. As a result, it was unclear whether the funds were properly utilised.

"From now onwards, we will see proper disclosure."

The tax official said the contribution of payroll tax is about 3 percent of the total income tax although it should increase as the economy is growing.

Md Shahadat Hossain, a former president of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh, said income from investment in savings certificates, where people invest as a source of future earnings, is already taxed.

"From that perspective, the imposition of tax on provident and other employee welfare funds seems okay."

However, Towfiqul Islam Khan, senior research fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said social protection for private sector employees was low.

"Provident and other workers' welfare-related funds provide little social protection. The imposition of tax will increase inequality. But there can't be any discrimination in taxation between private and government provident funds."

Khan, citing the latest income tax law that replaced the Income Tax Ordinance 1984, said the NBR tried to find new avenues to increase tax collection and improve the nation's revenue-gross domestic product ratio, which is one of the lowest in the world.

"We can see the desperation of the tax authority to boost collection. This ultimately reveals the inability of the NBR to catch the tax evaders and illicit money makers."