More blistering heatwaves and other weather extremes are becoming increasingly likely across the world now and in coming months, linked to strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says.
The WMO has issued an alert that a strong El Niño event is rapidly developing in the tropical Pacific, with sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2 degree Celsius.
This phenomenon significantly increases the likelihood of worldwide extreme weather, including intense heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts.
The UN weather agency reports that the event is accelerating in the July-September period and is likely to peak between November and February, impacting global climate patterns.
Referring to the rainfall outlook, the WMO says that the July–September 2026 rainfall outlook reflects a pattern that is consistent with a strengthening El Niño event.
"Below-normal rainfall is more likely across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia."
The WMO advises governments and vulnerable communities to immediately implement early warnings and advance preparations to protect lives and livelihoods.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast globally, increasing the risk of heat stress.
El Niño typically disrupts rainfall patterns, creating a higher probability of droughts in some regions (such as the Indian subcontinent) while bringing above-normal precipitation and flooding to parts of Africa and southern Europe.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following their onset.
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