The United States is currently the focus of international media attention. The citizens of the nation have been casting ballots in the presidential election on the first Tuesday in November since 1845. This time, the first Tuesday in November also falls on November 5.
Donald Trump has emerged as the Republican Party's presidential candidate, while Kamala Harris has transitioned into the Democratic Party's candidacy in the US presidential election. After President Joe Biden abruptly announced his withdrawal from the election race, Vice President Kamala Harris became the focus of conversation. Since then, the news of the US presidential election has been consistently promoted by the international media. Who will be the next president?
The party's leaders and workers feel relieved at the announcement of Joe Biden's departure from the election field. Biden was in a bad condition, and the president's physical disability became clearly visible in the first debate with Donald Trump in June 2024. Joe Biden withdrew from the election on July 21 and supported the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris. The Democratic Party officially announced his candidacy on August 5. Kamala Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Donald Trump chose J. D. Vance as his running mate.
US presidential debates are an important part of the election ritual. Kamala Harris did well in the first debate. But as time goes on, Donald Trump keeps turning around. After the controversy, Kamala Harris was ahead in the opinion polls. Later, Donald Trump gradually filled the gap. Now the world's media, including political observers, are faced with a complex equation: who will be the next president of the United States?
The results of election polls are more effective in the United States than in any other country. However, analysts are not completely free of doubt that those who are ahead in the survey will win the next presidential election. Here is an equation of popular vote and electoral vote. The general reader needs to understand the US presidential election system to understand that equation. No one can be elected president even if she receives the majority of the popular vote. The Electoral College vote is the final say in presidential elections. Direct voting by the citizens of different states is called the popular vote. As such, in general, a candidate who gets the most votes in a state is declared the winner. But balancing is a remarkably exceptional strategy in the US democratic system. Each state has Electoral College votes in proportion to its population. This electoral vote determines the outcome of the election.
For 48 of the 50 US states, the rule is that whoever wins the popular vote gets all the electoral votes in that state, no matter how wide or narrow the popular vote margin is. At the national level, even if the popular vote is higher, victory and defeat are calculated on the basis of electoral votes. The number of electoral votes in all the states in the country is 538. And to secure a position in the White House, a candidate must get at least 270 electoral votes.
George Walker Bush received 271 electoral votes in the 2000 presidential election, one more than the required number. However, Al Gore got about five and a half million more votes in the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won more than 2.8 million popular votes over rival Donald Trump in the 2016 election. However, Trump was elected with 304 electoral votes. Many experts believe that Kamala Harris will get more popular votes and Trump will get more electoral votes in this election. In that case, Donald Trump has the possibility of being elected president for the second time.
When it comes to the US election, experts are unable to provide the media with any firm predictions. Elections can be won by anyone, according to everyone. In the event that Trump wins, the world and the United States will be at greater risk, according to the London-based, internationally recognized media organization The Economist. Additionally, it is stated that the Economist would have supported Harris if it had the ability to cast a vote. In this sense, the most powerful media in the world has put Trump in a great position to win in many ways, whether you like it or not.
Donald Trump was soundly defeated by Joe Biden four years ago. He was a defeated leader then. Today he is a leader who has turned around in the cycle of time. Trump is widely believed to have made a comeback as he narrowed the gap with Kamala Harris in the polls.
The gap between these two leaders has never been more than three since the campaign reached its peak.
A poll conducted by CNN and the New York Times on August 4 showed that the two leaders were deadlocked. They both had 47 points after that. The popularity of Kamala Harris increased nationwide after August 5. Kamla took over as leader on November 3rd. That poll, however, indicates that this gap has never been less than one or greater than three. In numerous other surveys, the disparity was considerably more pronounced.
As per the New York Times/CNN survey conducted on November 3, Kamala had 49 points, one point ahead of the field. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona are swing states, and these seven battleground states will decide the outcome.
Trump's performance in these seven battlegrounds has steadily improved. Trump leads in four of the seven battleground states, Kamala leads in two, and there is a tie in one, according to a New York Times/CNN poll conducted on November 3.
Domestic and international indicators work in US presidential elections. Many have complained that Kamala Harris could not say anything clearly about what she can give to the people of the country.
Trump has repeatedly said that he will complete his incomplete work. Trump's pledge includes an 'America First' policy. The United States will have to withdraw from the international arena, which is contrary to the country's 21st-century policies, to finally implement this. Since its establishment, the United States has gradually strengthened its position in the international arena.
In many of the internal indicators that influence the US presidential election, Kamala Harris is ahead in comparative judgment. An indicator of this is the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic Party did well in that election. Despite the good results, the party could not secure a majority in the House of Representatives. Trump has moved forward in this field as the Republicans have a majority in the lower house of Congress.
The second indicator is consistency. Neither Kamala nor Trump is consistent in this election. Biden was a consistent candidate. As he moved, Kamala came. And since Trump was defeated in the previous election, he is also not a consistent candidate.
So both of them are in an equal situation in this index. Kamala is slightly ahead of Trump in winning the party nomination. Third-party candidate Robert F. Jr. withdrew his candidacy and announced his position in favor of Kamala.
Another indicator is the US economy. Since the Democratic government is not in recession and the US has played a key role in the Ukraine war, it can be assumed that the economy is not lagging behind despite the shocks. This indicator will go in favor of Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris is ahead in other international and domestic indicators. The return of the United States to the Paris Agreement has increased the confidence of the allies in the country in the international arena.
Apart from this, some other issues that have had a positive image are the CHIPS Bill, the Infrastructure Bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Climate Change Bill. Neither Kamala nor Trump are far apart on the issue of instability in the Middle East. The position of all political parties in the United States is almost the same on this issue. Although this issue is international, the domestic affairs of the United States are closely related to it. Trump's personal relationship with the Israeli government runs deep. The White House's relationship with the party and the government also plays a role in the US presidential election. In short, it is locally called the White House scandal. The Democratic Party did not get into any trouble during the Biden period on this issue. Kamala Harris is ahead in that regard. Trump is ahead in the personal charisma index.
Kamala could not show any charisma to his followers. However, Kamala didn't even get a chance to show it, as he went directly to the presidential election without finishing the long primary race. Trump is quite ahead on this issue. Kamala's ratings have increased after Biden's sudden departure. As soon as he officially entered the election race, he surpassed Trump in terms of popularity as a challenger. In the end, however, Trump cannot ignore this Democrat candidate.
As Trump advanced in the polls of the last week, many of the election researchers think that Trump's margin of victory is heavy at the moment. Chandrasekhar Putcha, Emeritus Professor of the University of California, said that he is 97 percent sure that Trump will win the election. He made this comment based on the results obtained by using all mathematical formulas under modern practical management. Kamala Harris has been in the lead throughout the election campaign but has faced a major challenge from rival Donald Trump in the last week. Trump told Eric Courtelis in an interview with Time magazine on April 30 that if elected, he would build detention camps for illegal immigrants about six months before the election. Trump also told reporters that he intends to fire the attorney general if he does not listen. He even said that he was in favor of amending the constitution to provide for three presidential elections. The US Constitution does not allow a person to be elected president for more than two terms.
According to the report of Britain's influential newspaper The Guardian, if Trump is elected in the second round, all issues, from free thought to free media, from abortion to gun safety, will be threatened. The newspaper warned of the possible rise of the far right in American civil life. There is also an immigration issue. If the United States, which was founded on immigrants, followed the anti-immigration rule, it would raise questions about the humanitarian values of that country. Trump has even threatened military intervention in Democrat-controlled cities. Mass deportation of illegal immigrants could cause widespread social unrest. Trump has threatened to ban transgender people. He has warned in advance that the rights of homosexuals will be curtailed at the same time. Trump will once again create obstacles to global initiatives on the climate issue.
The Guardian's assessment also states that the poor population of the United States may be at risk of becoming poorer during this period. And in foreign policy, allies of the US in the world, including Europe, may again be insecure in foreign policy. On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins, the world can see the opposite picture on every Trump-announced issue. Kamala described Trump as a volatile person and a threat to democracy during the election campaign of the last few months.
Readers of our country will have to wait at least till noon on November 6 to know the results of the US presidential election. However, as always, the election campaign has ended with excitement. The fight will be fierce.
